My trading activity in the FXOpen

[FXcandles]

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US crude oil prices are steady ahead of US CPI data and there is news about the Fed funds rate and FOMC Statement which will be released today.

Yesterday oil prices drew a Doji candlestick reflecting market indecision. Even though there is little buyer pressure, low trading volume causes less market volatility.

Elsewhere, gold prices are also stable ahead of the release of the CPI and FOMC statements at around $2311. The price of gold rose to $2317 and fell again to around $2310.

 

[FXcandles]

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In yesterday's trading, the price of WTI oil rose high at 78.95 after the release of CPI data which showed a value smaller than forecast and caused the USD to weaken momentarily. The Fed is still keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.50%, but JP Morgan predicts the Fed will lower interest rates twice this year and three times next year.
Crude oil investments showed 3.7M from the previous 1.2M with a forecast of -1.2M. This increase in inventories could pose a challenge for OPEC+ to control oil prices.

Elsewhere, gold and silver prices also had an impact shortly after the CPI data was released. The gold price rose to $2337 from $2311 in just one hour. However, the increase faded shortly after the Fed decided to maintain high interest rates. WTI oil price is currently at 77.79 at Tradingview chart FXOpen.

 

[FXcandles]

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The threat of World War 3 could pose a serious threat to humanity. The escalation of war that may occur amid the killing of Iranian General Saeed Abyar in Aleppo has increased tensions in the Middle East because Iran has threatened retaliation.

Even though the threat of geopolitical risks is increasingly real, oil prices are still below level 80 for US crude oil. This may be due more to rising US oil inventories.

Elsewhere, gold prices were also corrected down yesterday after PPI data and US unemployment claims rose. The Fed will probably cut interest rates at the end of this year, from the FOMC which is divided into different opinions, 7 Fed officials predict one rate cut while 8 predict two, the tiebreaker being the 4 Fed officials who now forecast no rate cuts this year. The majority of Fed officials predict the start of the easing cycle at the end of this year.

The Fed did not lower interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday and kept interest rates unchanged at 5.50%, but the Fed is projecting only one interest rate.

 

[FXcandles]

Back to the boards today, Monday market

Oil prices are still trading in the range above 77 price level amid optimism about the Fed cutting interest rates at the end of the year. Last week the gold price traded between the middle and lower band lines. EIA increased its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2024 to 1.10 million bpd from the previous forecast of 900,000 bpd.

Elsewhere, gold prices rose on Friday. Technically, gold prices are now near the $2340 resistance zone seen in the H4 timeframe. Today's investors will probably wait for fundamental news on the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which surveys 200 companies in New York state. Forecast data is -12.5 and the previous revision at -15.6. If the actual news release is greater than the forecast, it is good for the currency and possibly gold to fall. On the other hand, if the actual data is lower than the forecast, gold may rise.

The price of gold is often correlated with the USD, if the USD weakens the price of gold tends to rise, conversely, if the USD strengthens the price of gold tends to fall. However, other factors determine the price of gold, including demand and supply. Especially the demand from China, which is the largest importer of gold.

 

[FXcandles]

Back to the boards today, trading account login monitoring the fx market.

The price of WTI oil finally rose to a high of 79.91 after struggling at the price level of 77 for several days. The rising oil prices are due to investors' optimism regarding oil demand.

OPEC+ has forecast optimism that demand will increase over the summer, while Chinese economic data is also pushing up oil prices as expectations of Chinese demand increase.

Elsewhere, gold prices are still within the previous daily range. It seems that investors are still waiting for comments from Fed officials that could indicate an interest rate cut.

Even though the gold price is currently stable, the long-term outlook is that gold remains a safe-haven asset amid the threat of World War 3.

 

[FXcandles]

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Oil prices are now trading above the 80 price level, this is near the upper band line on the D1 timeframe which may be a resistance zone at the moment.

Here Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with wide-spaced bands reflecting high market volatility.

Oil prices rose despite a report by The American Petroleum Institute (API) showing an increase in US oil inventories by 2,264 million barrels this week.

Elsewhere, gold prices tend to move sideways in the short term, apparently due more to investors waiting for confirmation of an interest rate cut from the Fed. Currently, the Fed's interest rates are still high, reducing interest in buying gold as a safe haven. Demand for risk assets largely shifted attention to gold, with US stock indexes hitting all-time highs on Monday supported by a rally in technology shares. Besides that, China's central bank did not increase its gold reserves and also reduced gold trading volume.

 

[FXcandles]

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WTI oil prices yesterday traded in a narrow space due to low volatility, which is one of the reasons for the bank holidays in the US commemorating Juneteenth.

Oil prices are still trading above the 80 price level, which is a psychological level. Oil is expected to rise due to support from projected increased demand in 2024.

Elsewhere, the gold price is still in a narrow range and has not yet determined its direction.

The current uncertainty in gold may be triggered by when and how the Fed will reduce interest rates to normal levels which may take longer than investors expect.

 

[FXcandles]

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Yesterday oil prices were still trading above the 80 price level for US crude oil. optimism about oil demand in 2024 and widespread geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could trigger financial market turmoil.

Meanwhile, most investors in Western countries are waiting for confirmation that the Fed will lower interest rates, despite rumors that interest rates will be reduced in September towards the end of this year.

Elsewhere, gold prices soared yesterday because China again bought gold, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) continues to hold large positions in Gold and Silver. Gold was also buoyed by geopolitical risks due to war in the Middle East.

 

[FXcandles]

Back to the boards today on Monday this week

Seeing that the price of US crude oil has fallen to the psychological level of 80.

On Friday, positive oil sentiment brought prices up optimistically at 81.60.

However, it seems that the market is very dynamic, oil prices fell to the lowest level of 80.17 before the market closed on Friday. Markets may be responding to manufacturing and services PMI news on Friday which causes the USD to strengthen against other currencies including metals.

Visually, the oil price depicts a bearish candlestick that is bigger than the previous candle, this may be a reversal pattern, if the price breaks the 80 level down, it may look for new support near 79.00 near the MA line.

Elsewhere, gold prices also fell at the end of last week after the PMI manufacturing data was released. Gold prices suddenly fell after bullish sentiment dominated the market due to market optimism regarding the Fed's plans to cut interest rates at the end of the year.

 

[FXcandles]

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US Crude oil prices rose again after a decline near price level of 80. Now the price is moving below the upper band line. On the D1 timeframe, the Bollinger band appears to be expanding indicating increased volatility. Meanwhile, the MA 50 measures the average for the past 50 days, drawing a flat channel below the price, indicating a sideways market or maybe a trend transition.

The increase in oil prices may be triggered by supply concerns due to increasing geopolitical risk tensions between Lebanon and Israel and could lead to a widespread escalation of war.

The market is also waiting for updates on the latest US economic data which may limit the Fed's target for lowering interest rates which is predicted at the end of the year.

Elsewhere, gold prices rose yesterday after falling last week due to US data that supported the strengthening of the USD. Now gold is falling again to reach the initial track of the movement.

 

[FXcandles]

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Oil prices still failed to continue the rally after reaching the 81.63 price level. The price fell again and drew a long body bearish candlestick yesterday and the price has returned to the early track near the 80 price level.

The decline in US crude oil is suspected to be due to increased supply from the Republic of Congo.

Elsewhere, gold prices were also corrected down after US CB Consumer Confidence data which is also thought to trigger the USD to strengthen and impact on gold demand. The actual CB Consumer Confidence data was 100.4 with a previous revision of 101.3 and an estimate of 100.0. This is a survey of approximately 3,000 households that asks respondents to assess the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and the overall economic situation.

The market will wait for PCE data which will be released Friday, and today will focus on US home sales data.

 

[FXcandles]

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WTI oil price is still trading near the psychological level of 80.00. Yesterday the price drew a doji candle with a small body reflecting the indecision market.

In general, oil prices are consolidating near 80, but there are still concerns that tensions in the Middle East will disrupt supplies which might increase oil prices.

Standard Chartered advised investors that the market had not priced in continued inventory draws in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, and saw the potential for oil prices of $90 as early as the third quarter.
Analysts assume that OPEC+'s voluntary output cuts will not go as planned, but warn that if the market becomes more bearish.

Elsewhere, gold prices were corrected down due to comments from Fed officials regarding the current reluctance to cut interest rates. High interest rates make it more profitable for investors to buy bonds rather than gold.

 

[FXcandles]

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Oil prices rose again today and in general, are still moving in the 80-82 range.

WTI oil prices rose perhaps due to concerns about geopolitical risks in the Middle East between Lebanon and Israel which might lead to an all-out war.

However, the rise in oil prices appeared to be restrained by a surprise report of an increase in US oil inventories.

Elsewhere, gold prices rose yesterday due to several US economic data that supported a weakening USD.

Today the focus is on PCE data which will be released as inflation data which is being considered by the Fed to reduce interest rates.

 

[FXcandles]

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The price of US crude oil is still staying above the 80 price level which acts as the current psychological level.

It is predicted that oil prices will tend to be bullish due to geopolitical risks and expectations of the Fed reducing interest rates.

Elsewhere, gold prices reacted after PCE data was released on Friday. This week, several important news caught the attention of traders. Fed Chair Powell Speaks, JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Non-Farm Employment Change.

 

[FXcandles]

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Oil prices rallied yesterday and drew a bullish candlestick with a long body forming a higher high reflecting a rising high.
This increase may have been triggered by geopolitical risks and US economic data released yesterday.

Elsewhere, gold prices are still trading within a certain range because investors are still waiting for the Fed to reduce interest rates. Today there will be a speech from the Fed official, Chair Powell, which may give a hawkish or dovish signal. This may be a factor in increasing market volatility.

 

[FXcandles]

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Oil prices may rise today after drawing a doji candlestick yesterday. Yesterday's high price reached the price level of 83.75 before finally falling below the opening price.
Even though it drew a bearish candlestick it still formed a lower high.

Oil prices are expected to see increased demand in the summer as more people need to turn on their air-cooling machines. Apart from that feared geolithic risks will disrupt stability in the region and supply chains.

While oil may be hit by high interest rates the Fed is preventing prices from rising higher because high interest rates cause an economic slowdown, and may reduce oil demand.

Elsewhere, gold prices are also moving within a range, but it is predicted that gold prices will still be a safe haven in the long term, supported by geopolitical risks and expectations of the Fed reducing interest rates at the end of the year and the central bank may buy more gold as reserves.

 

[FXcandles]

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Yesterday's oil price was still in the previous price range, even though it drew a bullish candlestick but had not yet formed a higher high.

Yesterday's US economic data may not have received much market response to move oil.

While gold actually jumped yesterday as a result of ADP and Unemployment Claims data which did not support the USD, investors will then focus on NFP data which has a high impact and might make the market more volatile.

 

[FXcandles]

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Yesterday US Crude oil prices drew a bullish candlestick with a shadow at the bottom of the candle. Oil price movements in general are still moving above the 80 price level and tend to form a slightly weak uptrend pattern.
Today the NFP news will be released, it may have an impact on financial markets although it may not have a big effect on oil.

On the other hand, geopolitical risks are a concern regarding supply chain disruption if war escalates.
Lebanon even threatened Cyprus if this country allowed its territory to become a military base for Israel to attack Lebanon. However, Cyprus does not seem to want to be involved in this escalation, so perhaps they will prohibit Israel from using its territory as military fodder for a war with Lebanon.

Elsewhere, gold prices also seem to be waiting for the release of NFP data, yesterday gold moved in a narrow range after the previous day's strong rally.

 

[FXcandles]

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The price of gold is still trading at around $2386, there was a gap down today in the price of gold after the broker opened. It appears that the opening price was below last Friday's closing price with a slight gap in between.

Today focuses on Powell's testimony before Senate members in Washington DC, he will read a statement and answer questions from Senate members. This may give rise to speculation when unexpected questions arise.

Elsewhere, US crude oil prices are trading below the Bollinger band at around 82.54. Even though it fell last Friday, it is still moving above the 80 price level.

I trade at FXOpen